by Markar Esayan

After the Cape of Good Hope was rounded and America was discovered, the world's axis started shifting in the 15th century from the Silk Road, which was located in the center of the Ottoman and Muslim region, toward the eastern coast of the Atlantic; in other words, it started moving towards Europe.

This movement started during the Ottoman Empire's most powerful period, preventing the Ottoman Empire from detecting the changes that would take place in the world a few centuries later. At that time, it was impossible to predict the discoveries that would be made, the slave trade that would turn into a massive business, the several thousand tons of Aztec and Mayan gold that would flow from America to Europe and how a merchant civilization in Europe would colonize the world.

An additional six centuries had to pass before the Ottoman and Muslim region could grasp the changing paradigm in Europe. During those 600 years, every hegemonic order in the world emerged from the West: Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, France, Britain and the United States.

When Kemalist elites and secularist nationalists in Turkey assessed Turkey's new foreign policy, which was symbolized by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, as a "shift of axis," they ironically showed that they understood the changing world order and Turkey's changing role upside down or backwards.

Everyone was aware that the election of a person whose ancestors were used as slaves to the presidency of the United States after two bloody Bush terms was not a normal development. We attributed this to America's democracy, which wasn't exactly wrong, but we didn't really mention that there were other formulas in the chemistry of the change that forced this development.

After all, hasn't America always been the cradle of democracy?

When a superpower cannot foresee the potential for a public revolution in any part of the world and especially in the biggest and most important country in the Middle East, which is also the backbone of America's Middle East policy and its sole regional ally, it means that state is losing its position as a superpower. I think the people's revolution in Egypt is a development that ended one era and began a new one, just like the French Revolution of 1789. And I don't think that is an overstatement.

Tremors on the east coast of the Atlantic

The axis on the east coast of the Atlantic has started to move again. Squeaks from this long-idle and rusty axis are ringing throughout the world as it starts to move again.

According to George Modelski, a renowned professor of political science, the world's hegemonic power changes every century. The US inherited this position from England after playing a decisive role in both world wars. As for England, it becomes the new boss's attack dog. During the Cold War, the US looked like it was competing with the USSR for hegemony. But the USSR had a synthetic, unsupported power. This race caused the USSR to collapse. The USSR, which did not produce goods or integrate with the world, could not bear the weight of hegemony on its shoulders even with the natural wealth of its massive region.

I wonder what will happen now. Will Modelski's theory hold true again? To which country will the US have to transfer its hegemonic power? These are interesting questions.

It seems that some modifications will be necessary to this model. In the next 30 years, the US is going to have to share its role as boss of the world. It will have to share it with not just a single country like China or Russia but with a group of countries.

It would not be appropriate to get excited in analysis and say the US is going to divide into pieces in the next 30 years or experience a major downfall and become an ordinary country. If we split the last 1,000 years in half, we can observe a battle between the East and the West. During Muslim conquests and Mongol movements, the axis shifted towards the East and experienced splendor with the Ottoman Empire. It then shifted to the West in the process outlined above.

In the period ahead of us there will be a state of balance in which this axis will find its center of gravity. The East will be represented by not one country but by several countries that include China, Mexico, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, India and Turkey.

I am sure you understand that I am not referring to a physical geography when I say East and West. What I am referring to is a dispersed power system that dominates the world with a Western paradigm.

We must also note that colonialism has been dealt its last blows as well. The gradually evolving process of "self discovery" in Turkey and the critical change in Egypt shattered the colonial paradigm that defines the East and bases the legitimacy of its colonialism on this definition.

The revolutions in Turkey and Egypt have destroyed the perception of the East as a dirty, lazy, immature, primitive and dangerous place. A US and Israeli-backed dictator of 30 years was overthrown in the Middle East in just two weeks with the support of Muslims, Christians, leftists, Islamists, men and women. The loss of life was equal in number to that of people we lose in traffic accidents on holidays. The public did not turn to violence even though violence was used against them. Instead, they took part in civil disobedience. They did not fall into the trap of using violence and managed to overthrow their dictator.

Setting an example through their own methods

They achieved this using their own methods. They were very successful and set an example for the rest of the world. Millions of people at Tahrir Square chanted, "Neither the bible nor the Quran wants you." They said: "It's not enough for just Mubarak or Suleiman to leave. We want real freedom." The message the Egyptians gave by laying in front of tank tracks to show support to the army and by standing in front of them whenever the army appeared to be changing its attitude was this: "If you know your place and adhere to our decisions, then we will support you. But if you try to turn Egypt into Pakistan and attempt to assume Mubarak's place, then you will find millions of Egyptians against you."

Egypt's Supreme Military Council made it clear that it understood the people's message in the fourth statement it released, which stated: "We will guarantee the peaceful transition to an elected civilian power. We will continue to abide by international and regional treaties." Activists immediately released a statement in response, saying, "Dissolve the parliament, officially lift the state of emergency and release the political prisoners."

You can be sure that these demands will be met in a short time. Even the most powerful army in the world would not want to cross such a conscious and keen crowd. The determination and awareness of the masses is the secret power of democracy. Of course there is still a long way ahead for Egypt. But as the conditions in Egypt show, periods of tyranny are not a complete loss of time. Regardless of how much pressure there is, the faith in freedom cannot be stolen from the people. This faith continues to exist, albeit underground, and when it reaches a level of maturity, it shows its fruits. Yes, the Egyptians are taking control of an ill-managed country where resources were wasted and time was lost, but just as Germans made a world power out of a country that had been devastated after World War II, the Egyptians will bring their country to the level it deserves in a short time.

In short, Turkey and Egypt are breaking taboos. The Kemalist Neo-Nationalist Secularists (KNS), who suffer from Proprietor's Arrogance Syndrome (PAS), have been watching the changes by the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and its devout constituent base with their mouth open. But instead of giving the changes due credit and participating in the game, they organized Republican Rallies and lent support to the period of tutelage. I wonder if the US and EU will follow this path as well. Or will they accept being an equal of the East, realize the game has been balanced and decide this will be in the interest of the whole world?

Looking to the future

This question is important. The Obama term is coming to an end and there is a possibility that neocons will return to power. On the European continent, the two disasters, Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, are still in power. Just like 18th-century European monarch princes, Sarkozy and Merkel are determined to view Islam as a threat and to keep it weak and in the periphery. These leaders will eventually go, but they represent a serious social group. Reactions similar to the PAS that the KNS suffers from in Turkey could spark another polarization. 

But who can resist change? Islam always felt the weight of the East's victimization on its shoulders throughout the period the West possessed hegemony, and topics like jihad always hid Islam's creative and peaceful essence from the world. World public opinion constantly kept fresh a perception of Islam that consisted of Saddam Hussein's soldiers butchering a live sheep and a 16-year-old Taliban member killing a captured Pakistani soldier while reciting prayers. Organizations such as al-Qaeda represented Islam. Artificial inventions like radical and moderate Islam were born out of this need. The West's hegemony over the media did not allow the East to be represented in any other way. The East always came to the agenda with images of mass murder, the execution of women or an African child about to be eaten by a vulture.

But the only media outlet is not CNN, which broadcasted the Gulf War like a PlayStation game. There is Al Jazeera. There is Facebook and Twitter. There are strong communication networks and WikiLeaks.

On the other hand, the East is not comprised of just Islam. Christianity is an Eastern religion. The West attributed it to itself and made it a buttress of its colonialism. But millions of Eastern Christians lived separately from the sins of the Western church and suffered as much as Muslims did. The 10 million Christians in Egypt also supported the revolution and took their places in the squares. A wonderful example of this was the wedding ceremony organized for two Coptic Egyptians at Tahrir Square.

Perhaps during this process these two Eastern religions will get to know each other's true identity and join forces.

I would have wanted Edward Said to see these days because the democratic revolution in Egypt is going to have a powerful affect that ends Israel's pride regarding the Palestinian issue. Israel will not be able to hide behind the flag of being the "only democracy" in the Middle East or behind Egypt's power. The development of democracies in the Middle East will discredit Israel's arguments for continuing the war. I wrote this in my article about the Kurdish issue as well. When the weak are required to fight with the weapons of the powerful, the weak will always be at an unfair disadvantage and will fail. It is possible to push Israel toward peace through democratic methods without killing Israeli civilians.

My late father suffered many injustices in his own country just because he was Armenian and Christian. He used to say, "This country will change, but my lifetime will not be enough," with feelings of resentment and anger. I didn't feel the same way, but I couldn't find anything meaningful to say to him either. If only his health had permitted and he could have seen how not just Turkey but the entire world is changing.

Then again, maybe he is seeing it, right?